Japanese Scotland had its wettest October on checklist in a chain which works again to 1836, with some counties seeing neatly over two times their reasonable rainfall for the month, in step with provisional Met Place of work figures.
Japanese Scotland broke its checklist for rainfall in October, with 235.9mm of rain being 82% greater than its reasonable. There have been vital and very serious flood affects within the space right through Typhoon Babet, with two purple rain warnings issued via the Met Place of work.
In additional granular element, Angus, Dundee, Fife and Kincardineshire have been amongst a variety of counties that recorded their wettest October on checklist as Typhoon Babet adopted early month remarkable rainfall in a sodden length for lots of.
A month of rain
The United Kingdom had over a 3rd extra rain than reasonable with 171.5mm (40% greater than reasonable) in what was once provisionally the joint-sixth wettest October on checklist.
Northern Eire had its 5th wettest October on checklist with 191.8mm being 68% greater than its reasonable. England had its 8th wettest on checklist with 147.2mm of rain, which is 63% greater than reasonable.
Along with some counties within the east of Scotland; Staffordshire, Nottinghamshire and the Isle of Wight additionally provisionally had their respective wettest October on checklist. In Northern Eire, counties Armagh and Down additionally had their wettest October.
The beginning of the month noticed a marked north-south distinction in climate throughout the United Kingdom. Scotland bore the brunt of rainfall from Atlantic fronts, with 6 to 7 October the wettest 2-day length on checklist for Scotland in a chain from 1891. Additional south, England and Wales noticed a vital heat, dry and sunny spell with temperatures broadly within the low 20s °C and 25°C on 4 consecutive days within the south-east.
Since then then again, rainfall hasn’t ever been too a ways clear of the United Kingdom, with figures expanding dramatically from Typhoon Babet’s affect on 18 to 21 October.
Babet’s affects on England and Wales have been mainly felt from 18 to twenty October, in what was once the third-wettest 3-day length for England and Wales in a chain from 1891, whilst the Midlands provisionally recorded its wettest 3-day length on checklist. Japanese Scotland additionally noticed remarkable rainfall as a part of the development, with 200mm of rain falling in probably the most wettest spaces.
Met Place of work Senior Scientist Michael Kendon stated: “In spite of some heat within the south early on, October 2023 total is going down as a rainy month for far of the United Kingdom, with some spaces seeing record-breaking ranges of rainfall.
“From mid-month, a blockading top arrange over Scandinavia has tended to stop low drive programs from clearing the United Kingdom to the east. Related to this, the common strange south-easterly glide in jap Scotland has in particular contributed to the rainy month on this space – most often one of the crucial driest portions of the United Kingdom.
“Apparently, spaces to the west, the place you’d most often see extra rain presently of 12 months, were sheltered via the mountains from the worst of the elements, with usually underneath reasonable rainfall right through the month. This has helped save you nationwide figures from threatening any data.”
Rainfall and local weather trade
As the ambience warms because of human brought on local weather trade it will possibly grasp extra moisture, at a fee of round 7% extra moisture for each and every stage of warming. On a easy stage, this explains why in lots of areas of the sector projections display an building up in precipitation attributable to human brought on local weather trade.
The United Kingdom’s observations display huge variability in annual, seasonal, and decadal rainfall. Alternatively, total additionally they display that now not handiest is our local weather getting hotter, additionally it is getting wetter, in step with this anticipated building up. Specifically, a number of other measures display a slight building up in heavy rainfall in fresh a long time.
Someday, local weather projections for the United Kingdom point out that during October, November and December, spaces of the United Kingdom will most probably see extra days with rainfall totals over 50mm, however in particular within the west.
Gentle month for some
In spite of the rainy climate, temperatures have usually remained above reasonable for the month, with southern England the warmest in comparison to reasonable – most often between 1.5 and a pair of°C above the 1991-2020 October longer term reasonable.
For many counties within the south of England, the October imply temperature was once inside of their respective best ten for the month, even though none reached any checklist ranges.
The United Kingdom’s imply temperature of 10.8°C in October 2023 is 1°C above reasonable, even though spaces additional north have been usually nearer to reasonable. Scotland’s imply temperature of 8.3°C was once 0.2°C above reasonable.
Solar in brief provide
As anticipated with common and heavy rain, it was once a moderately boring month, in particular throughout central portions of the United Kingdom, with underneath reasonable hours of light for lots of.
The United Kingdom had a median of 84.8 hours of light within the month, which is 8% lower than the long-term reasonable. Northern England had a in particular dreary month, with 73 hours of light being 22% fewer than its reasonable for the month.
| Provisional statistics | Rainfall mm / % |
Sunshine hours / % |
||
| October 2023 | Precise | 1991/2020 Anomaly |
Precise | 1991/2020 Anomaly |
| UK | 171.5 | 140 | 84.8 | 92 |
| England | 147.2 | 163 | 94.8 | 92 |
| Wales | 208.6 | 132 | 82.8 | 90 |
| Scotland | 198.7 | 118 | 69.4 | 93 |
| Northern Eire | 191.8 | 168 | 80.1 | 94 |
| Provisional statistics | Most temp °C |
Minimal temp °C |
Imply temp °C |
|||
| October 2023 | Precise | 1991/2020 Anomaly |
Precise | 1991/2020 Anomaly |
Precise | 1991/2020 Anomaly |
| UK | 14.0 | 0.9 | 7.6 | 1.1 | 10.8 | 1.0 |
| England | 15.6 | 1.5 | 8.6 | 1.5 | 12.1 | 1.5 |
| Wales | 14.5 | 1.2 | 8.5 | 1.6 | 11.5 | 1.4 |
| Scotland | 11.1 | -0.2 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 8.3 | 0.2 |
| Northern Eire | 13.9 | 1.0 | 7.9 | 1.5 | 10.9 | 1.3 |
Season thus far
With two months of meteorological Autumn down, the season thus far has been hotter than reasonable, in particular within the south, whilst many portions within the east of Scotland, England and Northern Eire have already had greater than their reasonable rainfall for the entire season – and a couple of spots up to 150% – with a month nonetheless to move.
At this level within the season, you’d be expecting puts to have had round 67% in their reasonable rainfall for the entire season.
With a month of the season nonetheless to move, there’s quite a lot of likelihood for the figures to regulate sooner than the belief of meteorological autumn. Typhoon Ciaran and the usually unsettled outlook are more likely to see the fall rainfall figures proceed to extend considerably.
