The San Francisco 49ers have a protracted street forward of them in the event that they need to win their first Tremendous Bowl since 1995. Not essentially as a result of they’re going to stand a large number of robust festival — the NFC is reasonably vulnerable this 12 months — however as a result of they have got to win 4 instantly video games with 2022’s Mr. Inappropriate underneath heart. Main as much as the playoffs, that hasn’t hindered the 49ers although. They’ve received 10 instantly video games, 5 of that have include Purdy because the staff’s signal-caller. He has but to file a unmarried sport with fewer than two passing touchdowns, and has a passer score of 119 since taking up for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. It’s been a perfect tale, and bettors appear susceptible to suppose it’s one thing extra.
What are the percentages?
Consistent with OddsChecker US, since Week 18 of the common season got here to a detailed, the 49ers have observed a staggering 17.7 p.c of bets put on them to win the Tremendous Bowl. What’s even crazier is that, normally, a majority of these numbers point out nice odds for an underappreciated squad, however the 49ers don’t have that downside. They’ve the third-best odds to win all of it (+500), at the back of most effective the Kansas Town Chiefs (+350) and Buffalo Expenses (+400). In reality, the staff with the second-most bets to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, the Cincinnati Bengals, has worse odds to win all of it (+850). Usually, I’d suppose bettors would flock to the staff that would no longer most effective pay out extra for profitable all of it, however used to be additionally one win clear of doing so simply ultimate 12 months.
May a vulnerable NFC be main bettors to the 49ers?
Is the NFC truly that unhealthy that bettors are prepared to earn much less cash for the boldness that includes supporting the freshest staff within the NFC? It sort of feels so, they usually do have explanation why to be assured in SF’s probabilities. For the 12 months, the 49ers have allowed warring parties to attain most effective 16.3 issues in line with sport, whilst scoring 33.5 issues in line with sport with Purdy at quarterback. Over a complete 17-game season, this equates to 277 issues allowed and 570 issues for. There is just one staff within the Tremendous Bowl Technology to permit fewer overall issues whilst scoring extra: The 2007 New England Patriots, who went 16-0 all over the common season.
Great numbers don’t always get you a Super Bowl victory
However, as I’m sure all of you know, that team didn’t win the Super Bowl. That said, of the seven teams to have scored 500 or more points in a season while allowing fewer than 300, five went on to represent their conference in the Super Bowl (the 1998 Vikings and 2019 Ravens did not). Only two actually won it all — the 1999 Rams and 1994 49ers. By that logic, the odds of the 49ers reaching the Super Bowl should be pretty high, so why is there still a sense of unease in regard to them winning it all?
Bet on Brock?
Purdy is the obvious answer. Despite playing phenomenally well, he is still a seventh-round rookie. Another factor may be the 49ers’ lack of difficult opponents since Purdy came into the fold. Although Purdy did face two playoff teams, he only faced one with a winning record — the Seattle Seahawks. I’ll admit, even as a 49ers fan, this scares me a bit as well. With such an inexperienced man under center, it’s hard to come back if the 49ers fall behind early. Since Purdy took over the starting gig, the 49ers have had only one game where the team was forced to throw the ball more often than they ran it — Week 17 against the Las Vegas Raiders. That was a game the 49ers should’ve dominated. I mean, for goodness sake, the Raiders didn’t even play Derek Carr in that game, yet when push came to shove, Purdy had a difficult time pulling out the win. Who knows? If Tashaun Gipson didn’t make that game-sealing interception in overtime, maybe the 49ers wouldn’t have ended the season on a ten-game win streak.
Can the 49ers play from behind?
Yes, Purdy eventually did pull the 10-point comeback, but he should’ve never been in that position. What happens when the 49ers fall behind against an offense like Philadelphia’s or Buffalo’s that doesn’t succumb to pressure and can consistently score even against the best defenses in the NFL? That’s where I’m worried.
Best of the bunch?
Given the problems every other team in the NFC has, I wouldn’t be surprised if the 49ers represented their conference in the Super Bowl, but should they go up against the Chiefs, Bills, or Bengals, I’d have a hard time believing they’d win. They’ve already lost by 21 to the Chiefs this season, and while the 49ers did make the switch at quarterback a few weeks later, and perhaps hadn’t come into form at that point yet, 21 points is still a lot. Yes, Tom Brady and the Bucs beat the New Orleans Saints in the 2020 playoffs after losing 38-3 in the regular season, but Purdy isn’t Brady, despite their low draft statuses.
The talent is there — but can they put it all together?
The 49ers have the talent to win it all. That’s undeniable. However, the quarterback position is and has long been the most important position in football, and quarterbacks making their first career postseason start tend to struggle.
How rookie QBs have fared in recent years
Since the NFL changed its playoff format in 2002, teams with quarterbacks making their first-ever postseason starts have gone 24-46, together with an abysmal 1-4 efficiency ultimate season (Carr, Hurts, Jones, Murray, Burrow). To be truthful, the only QB that received, Joe Burrow, reached the Tremendous Bowl, and used to be one Ja’Marr Chase streak clear of profitable that sport. I be expecting the 49ers to overcome the Seahawks, as they’ve finished two times this 12 months already. So with that stated, possibly the 49ers have a beautiful probability in spite of everything.