The Los Angeles Chargers are an excellent soccer group. Even within the absence of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for portions of the season, the downfall of JC Jackson, and the abysmal play of Jerry Tiller at the D-line — fortunately he simply were given waived — the Chargers have performed their strategy to a 5-3 report and are very a lot within the thick of a department name on the midway level of the season.
This weekend, the Bolts play the San Francisco 49ers in SoCal in what seems like an entertaining matchup between two low-end Tremendous Bowl contenders. Actually, although, San Francisco will have to completely wipe the ground with L.A. Now not for the reason that Chargers’ report is best than their exact efficiency, however somewhat for the reason that 49ers fit up phenomenally neatly.
Let’s get started with the elephant within the room, the issue everyone seems to be speaking about — the Chargers’ run protection. It’s no secret that Los Angeles does about as neatly at preventing the run because the NFL does at imposing roughing the passer. The offseason addition of Khalil Mack was once intended to mitigate this drawback, since Mack were one of the crucial highest edge defenders towards the run for a few years. He’s been excellent, however the remainder of the D-line has been underperforming, and the ones struggles had been amplified with the absence of All-Professional go rusher Joey Bosa. The Chargers are permitting essentially the most yards consistent with rush of any group within the NFL (5.7). They’re 2nd within the NFL in EPA allowed consistent with rush play as neatly, handiest forward of the Cleveland Browns in that division.
Now, the Niners haven’t been an elite dashing group this yr. If truth be told, they’ve been under moderate in relation to each EPA and general yards, however make no mistake, the 49ers’ id is as a run-heavy group, and with Christian McCaffrey suiting up for his 3rd sport with the group, San Fran’s dashing assault may well be an excessive amount of for the Chargers to care for, even with the absence of left take on Trent Williams.
Now, the 49ers’ secondary is a little bit suspect. Whilst lots of the Niners’ trustworthy had been anticipating cornerback Jason Verrett to go back quickly, he as a substitute suffered a season-ending Achilles harm in observe this week. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will have to have a very easy time dissecting that banged-up secondary, however with each Keenan Allen and Mike Williams lacking this sport, it might come right down to Joshua Palmer, DeAndre Carter, and Gerald Everett to hold the L.A. passing assault. I don’t believe any of them to do severe harm.
The Chargers’ dashing assault hasn’t been any higher. Whilst Austin Ekeler is likely one of the highest backs within the league, he hasn’t been very environment friendly as a ball service. Rather, he’s accomplished maximum of his harm during the air. That stated, San Fran linebacker Fred Warner is likely one of the highest within the NFL at following the ball out of the backfield and making open-field tackles. Ekeler may well be in for heavy utilization this sport, however I wouldn’t be expecting him to get very some distance very ceaselessly. May he smash one or two performs for massive positive aspects/touchdowns? Positive, however the 49ers are one of the crucial highest groups within the NFL at protecting performs out of the backfield.
Consistent with OddsChecker US, bettors disagree with my sentiment. In spite of the having a bet line transferring within the 49ers’ prefer over the process the week — from +5.5 at opening to +7 these days — 65 % of moneyline bets have long gone in prefer of Los Angeles. That is the primary time since Week 3 of 2021 towards Kansas Town that the Chargers had been a landing underdog or worse. Possibly that cast observe report is what’s pushing bettors towards the Bolts. Or in all probability it’s the Chargers’ dominance over the 49ers within the twenty first century. L.A. has received 4 of its ultimate 5 towards San Francisco. Nonetheless, previous effects don’t point out long term results. Brandon Staley wasn’t even the Chargers’ head trainer the ultimate time those two groups performed.
With an emphasis on quick passes, energy runs, and potency out of the backfield, the 49ers are arguably the worst group the Chargers may face all yr. May they win? Completely. That is the NFL, and any person can win on any given day. Additionally, I’m by no means going to be 100% positive of a gamble towards Justin Herbert, however via each measure possible, San Fran will have to win this sport. Whilst bettors appear positive that seven issues are too many for the Chargers to lose via, I virtually imagine a double-digit loss isn’t out of the query. On the other hand, the 49ers have a knack for shedding video games they shouldn’t — simply ask the Bears and Falcons — so perhaps I’m studying an excessive amount of into this. I doubt it although.